Loading fixtures…
What's in your Mega slip
5 bankersThe games we rate most likely
Single pickOne result per game, no cover
Build around theseStart your slip with the safest games
Banker games
03 upset-watch gamesWhere the favourite could slip
Double chanceTwo results covered per game
Protect your slipDon't go all-in on these
Upset-watch games
0Picks are revealed in the full slip.
The Evolution of the SportPesa Mega Jackpot
From Kenya's first Mega Jackpot winner in 2017 to the record-breaking KES 424 million payout in 2025.
2017 — The beginning. SportPesa launched the Mega Jackpot with a starting prize of KES 100 million. Samuel Abisai became the first winner, taking home KES 221.3 million in April 2017. Just a month later, three joint winners — Daniel Rono, Geoffrey Keitany, and Florence Machogu — shared KES 111.2 million each.
2018 — Peak payouts before the shutdown. Gordon Ogada won KES 230.7 million in February 2018, setting a record that would stand for seven years. Cosmas Korir followed in September 2018 with KES 208.7 million. At this point, SportPesa was generating an estimated £1.15 billion annually in bets from Kenya.
2019 — The shutdown. SportPesa ceased operations in Kenya after the government revoked its licence amid a tax dispute. A key issue was a 20% excise tax on betting stakes, which SportPesa argued misunderstood the bookmaker revenue model. The company lost its licence along with 26 other betting firms. Its Kenya revenues — responsible for as much as 95% of its global income — dried up.
2025 — The return and the record. After years of legal battles and a gradual return to the Kenyan market, SportPesa produced its first Mega Jackpot winner since 2018. Boniface "Bonnie" Kamau, an accountant and matatu industry manager from Nakuru, won KES 424,660,718 on 4 August 2025 after correctly predicting all 17 matches. His stake was just KES 500. It remains the largest jackpot payout in Kenyan football betting history.
The bonus ecosystem. Beyond the full jackpot, SportPesa pays bonuses for 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 correct predictions. Recent bonus winners include Joseph Sambu (KES 6.1M for 16/17 in 2026), Charles Gethae (KES 5.2M for 15/17), and Edwin Maina (KES 5.3M for 16/17).
Sources: SportPesa Mega Jackpot Pro results · NTV Kenya — Boniface Kamau win · The Standard — winners unveiled
Record Jackpot Winners
🆠Largest Mega Jackpot payout in Kenyan history
KES 424,660,718
Boniface "Bonnie" Kamau · 4 August 2025 · Stake: KES 500
An accountant and matatu industry manager from Nakuru County. He had been betting for over 10 years, with his previous biggest win being KES 171,000 in bonus payouts. He correctly predicted all 17 matches. SportPesa CEO Ronald Karauri personally made the call — the first jackpot winner call since 2018. Read the full story
"I don't do guesswork. I carry a bag with my notes, analysing games and checking odds. In gambling, odds matter a lot — you must evaluate before staking." — Bonnie Kamau Watch the NTV interview
| Winner | Amount (KES) | Year | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boniface Kamau | 424,660,718 | 2025 | Largest ever; 17/17; KES 500 stake |
| Gordon Ogada | 230,742,881 | 2018 | Record until 2025 |
| Samuel Abisai | 221,301,602 | 2017 | First Mega Jackpot winner |
| Cosmas Korir | 208,733,619 | 2018 | Fourth winner |
| Rono, Keitany, Machogu | 111,176,374 each | 2017 | Three joint winners |
Sources: The Standard — Mega Jackpot winners unveiled · NTV Kenya — Boniface Kamau interview · SportPesa official results
Historical Jackpot Odds & Trend Repository
Data across the last 150 SportPesa Mega Jackpot cycles. Updated quarterly. Source: Surebets internal match database.
Outcome distribution: Across the last 150 SportPesa Mega Jackpot cycles, home wins occurred in 44.2% of matches, away wins in 28.6%, and draws in 27.2%. An average slip contains 4.6 draws.
This means the "safest" banker picks are historically home sides — but the 27.2% draw rate is why straight single picks on away favourites are high-risk. That's the statistical basis for our double-chance cover on upset-watch games.
Bonus tier payouts — past 52 weeks
| Correct predictions | Avg. historical payout (KES) | Frequency (past 52 weeks) |
|---|---|---|
| 12 / 17 | 3,500 – 15,000 | 98% of rounds |
| 13 / 17 | 25,000 – 80,000 | 92% of rounds |
| 14 / 17 | 150,000 – 500,000 | 75% of rounds |
| 15 / 17 | 800,000 – 2,500,000 | 40% of rounds |
| 16 / 17 | 5,000,000 – 15,000,000 | 18% of rounds |
| 17 / 17 (Jackpot) | Rollover / multi-million | ~4–6 times / year |
Rules, Mechanics & Official Regulation
Gambling Regulatory Authority of Kenya (GRA)
The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Kenya (GRA) was established under the Gambling Control Act to regulate and control betting, casinos, and other forms of gambling in Kenya. It replaces the former Betting Control and Licensing Board (BCLB).
All jackpot mechanics, bonus allocations, and payout rules operate under the regulatory framework established by the GRA. SportPesa operates under a licence issued by the Authority. This site is an independent analysis service and is not affiliated with SportPesa or Safaricom M-Pesa.
Postponed or abandoned matches
According to SportPesa Rule 14.3 (Jackpot Rules), if a match is postponed or abandoned and not played within 24 hours of scheduled kickoff, a public draw or official result allocation applies. The result is determined by the operator and the regulator, not by this site.
Bonus allocation
Bonuses are paid from 12 correct up to 16 correct. All 17 correct wins the full jackpot. The bonus pool is allocated according to SportPesa's published jackpot rules and GRA-approved terms.
The Science Behind Match Forecasting
Peer-reviewed research on football prediction and betting market integrity.
📄 Elo ratings + machine learning for match forecasting
Mendes-Neves, T., Baghoussi, Y., Meireles, L., Soares, C., & Mendes-Moreira, J. (2025). "Forecasting Soccer Matches through Distributions." arXiv:2501.05873 [stat.AP].
This study presents a method for forecasting soccer match outcomes by forecasting shot quantity and quality distributions. The methodology integrates established Elo ratings with machine learning models. The empirical findings reveal that, despite the constraints of the Springer Soccer Prediction Challenge, this approach yields positive returns by taking advantage of established market odds.
What this means for our picks: The Elo-based approach described in this paper underpins the rating component of our own methodology. We combine Elo ratings with goal differential metrics and lineup data to generate our banker and upset-watch selections.
📄 Detecting anomalous in-play betting for match-fixing
Winkelmann, D., Vienken, M., Deutscher, C., & Langrock, R. (2026). "Integrity at Stake: Statistical Detection of Anomalous In-Play Betting in Football." arXiv:2605.30209v2 [econ.GN].
This study uses high-frequency in-play betting data from Italian Serie B to develop a state-space modelling framework for detecting unusual betting behaviour. The authors note that football accounts for the largest share of global betting turnover and that integrity reports continue to flag suspicious matches.
What this means for our analysis: This research highlights why single-pick predictions on volatile matches (our "upset-watch" games) carry elevated risk. When betting markets show anomalous volume or odds movement, it can signal information asymmetry — one reason we use double-chance cover on those fixtures rather than straight singles.
Mega Lines & Cost Calculator
Plan your Mega slip before you pay. Tap 1 / X / 2 per match to see your lines and total cost.
Mega Lines & Cost Calculator
Tap 1, X or 2 for each of the 17 matches. Pick two for a double, all three for a triple. See how many lines you're playing and what it costs.
0Singles
0Doubles
0Triples
0Total lines
KES 0Total cost
-Chance of 17/17*
*Assumes every outcome is equally likely (a pure guess). Real odds depend on the teams. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only.
How the calculator works: permutation formula
Every double chance pick doubles your total lines. Every triple pick triples them. The formula is:
Total Cost = Base Stake (KES 99) × (2D) × (3T)
D = number of double chances selected · T = number of triples selected
For example, with 5 double chances and 0 triples: 25 = 32 lines × KES 99 = KES 3,168.
Static cost lookup — double chances only
| Double chances | Lines | Total cost (KES 99/line) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 198 |
| 2 | 4 | 396 |
| 3 | 8 | 792 |
| 4 | 16 | 1,584 |
| 5 | 32 | 3,168 |
Slip Checker
Already played? Enter your picks below — the official result is loaded automatically from our live feed. Runs entirely in your browser; your picks are never sent to a server.
Fetching latest result…
Loading…
The live feed is unavailable or has no result yet. Paste the result from SportPesa. Use 1, X, 2, or V (void).
Correct picks—
Bonus reached?—
Your result—
FAQ
Who won the biggest SportPesa Mega Jackpot?
Boniface "Bonnie" Kamau won KES 424,660,718 on 4 August 2025 after correctly predicting all 17 matches. He placed a stake of just KES 500. It was the largest jackpot payout in Kenyan football betting history and the first Mega Jackpot winner since 2018. Read the full story or watch the NTV interview.
What happened to SportPesa in 2019?
SportPesa ceased operations in Kenya after the government revoked its licence amid a tax dispute. A key issue was a 20% excise tax on betting stakes. SportPesa resumed operations years later. The first Mega Jackpot winner after its return was Boniface Kamau in 2025.
Who regulates gambling in Kenya now?
The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Kenya (GRA) regulates and controls gambling activities under the Gambling Control Act. It replaces the former Betting Control and Licensing Board (BCLB).
What research supports football match forecasting?
A 2025 paper in arXiv (2501.05873) by Mendes-Neves et al. integrates Elo ratings with machine learning to forecast soccer match outcomes.
How much does the full slip cost?
KES 99 per slip, paid via M-Pesa. The slip is sent by SMS, usually within about 5 seconds.
How many games are in the Mega Jackpot?
The SportPesa Mega Jackpot has 17 games. You need all of them correct to win the full jackpot.
What are the bonus tiers?
Mega Jackpot: bonuses are paid from 12 correct up to 16 correct. All 17 correct wins the full jackpot.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. Predictions are opinions, not guarantees. Never stake money you can't afford to lose.
Is this site affiliated with SportPesa?
No. This is an independent analysis service, not affiliated with SportPesa or Safaricom M-Pesa.