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What's in your Midweek slip
3 bankersThe games we rate most likely
Single pickOne result per game, no cover
Build around theseStart your slip with the safest games
Banker games
02 upset-watch gamesWhere the favourite could slip
Double chanceTwo results covered per game
Protect your slipDon't go all-in on these
Upset-watch games
0Picks are revealed in the full slip.
The Evolution of the SportPesa Midweek Jackpot
Smaller entry, faster rounds, lower odds — how the 13-game Midweek jackpot carved its own lane alongside the Mega Jackpot.
2017 — The sibling launch. SportPesa launched the Midweek Jackpot alongside the Mega Jackpot. The pitch was simple: 13 games instead of 17, a KES 100 stake instead of KES 500, and a draw twice a week instead of once. It was designed for players who wanted a faster, more affordable shot at a multi-million payout.
2018 — The rollover engine. Because the Midweek jackpot requires all 13 correct, full-jackpot hits are rarer than bonuses. SportPesa let the prize pool roll over week after week, and the Midweek jackpot became known for hitting several million shillings in unused weeks before a winner landed.
2019 — The shutdown. The same licensing dispute that shuttered the Mega Jackpot also shuttered the Midweek Jackpot. SportPesa ceased Kenyan operations after the government revoked its licence amid a tax dispute, with the 20% excise tax on betting stakes a key issue. Both jackpots returned years later.
2025 — The return. Both jackpots came back with SportPesa's gradual return to the Kenyan market. The Midweek jackpot kept its 13-game format and KES 99 stake, with bonuses paid from 10 correct up to 12 correct, and all 13 needed for the full prize.
How it differs from the Mega Jackpot. The Midweek jackpot has 13 games instead of 17, a lower bonus threshold (10 vs 12), and a KES 99 stake instead of KES 500. The prize pool is smaller but the odds of hitting all the required correct picks are meaningfully better — which is why many players treat the Midweek as their weekly "main" play and the Mega as the bigger swing.
Sources: SportPesa official results · The Standard — SportPesa winners unveiled
Midweek Jackpot Winners
🆠How Midweek payouts work
13/13 required
Bonus tiers from 10/13 upward
The Midweek jackpot is deliberately harder to hit than the bonus tiers and easier to hit than the Mega. In a typical week the 12/13 bonus pays tens of thousands of shillings; the full 13/13 pays the accumulated jackpot. When no slip hits all 13, the pool rolls over — which is why the Midweek jackpot often jumps from a starting floor to multi-million territory over several weeks.
Winners are announced via The Standard's winners coverage and SportPesa's official channels. We update this section as new winners are confirmed.
| Payout tier | Typical range (KES) | When it lands |
|---|---|---|
| 10 / 13 | 2,000 – 8,000 | Most weeks |
| 11 / 13 | 10,000 – 40,000 | Most weeks |
| 12 / 13 | 50,000 – 250,000 | Most weeks |
| 13 / 13 (Full jackpot) | Rollover / multi-million | Rare — rolls over when no winner |
Sources: SportPesa official results · The Standard — SportPesa winners
Historical Midweek Odds & Trend Repository
Data across the last 150 SportPesa Midweek cycles. Updated quarterly. Source: Surebets internal match database.
Outcome distribution: Across the last 150 SportPesa Midweek cycles, home wins occurred in 43.8% of matches, away wins in 29.1%, and draws in 27.1%. An average 13-game Midweek slip contains 3.5 draws.
Fewer games means the draw rate matters less in absolute terms, but the relative risk of a straight away pick is the same. The double-chance cover on upset-watch games reduces the chance of a single draw wiping out your entire slip.
Bonus tier payouts — past 52 weeks
| Correct predictions | Avg. historical payout (KES) | Frequency (past 52 weeks) |
|---|---|---|
| 10 / 13 | 2,000 – 8,000 | 97% of rounds |
| 11 / 13 | 10,000 – 40,000 | 88% of rounds |
| 12 / 13 | 50,000 – 250,000 | 64% of rounds |
| 13 / 13 (Jackpot) | Rollover / multi-million | ~8–12 times / year |
Rules, Mechanics & Official Regulation
Gambling Regulatory Authority of Kenya (GRA)
The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Kenya (GRA) was established under the Gambling Control Act to regulate and control betting, casinos, and other forms of gambling in Kenya. It replaces the former Betting Control and Licensing Board (BCLB).
All jackpot mechanics, bonus allocations, and payout rules operate under the regulatory framework established by the GRA. SportPesa operates under a licence issued by the Authority. This site is an independent analysis service and is not affiliated with SportPesa or Safaricom M-Pesa.
Postponed or abandoned matches
According to SportPesa Rule 14.3 (Jackpot Rules), if a match is postponed or abandoned and not played within 24 hours of scheduled kickoff, a public draw or official result allocation applies. The result is determined by the operator and the regulator, not by this site.
Bonus allocation (Midweek)
Bonuses are paid from 10 correct up to 12 correct. All 13 correct wins the full jackpot. The bonus pool is allocated according to SportPesa's published jackpot rules and GRA-approved terms.
The Science Behind Match Forecasting
Peer-reviewed research on football prediction and betting market integrity.
📄 Elo ratings + machine learning for match forecasting
Mendes-Neves, T., Baghoussi, Y., Meireles, L., Soares, C., & Mendes-Moreira, J. (2025). "Forecasting Soccer Matches through Distributions." arXiv:2501.05873 [stat.AP].
This study presents a method for forecasting soccer match outcomes by forecasting shot quantity and quality distributions. The methodology integrates established Elo ratings with machine learning models. The empirical findings reveal that, despite the constraints of the Springer Soccer Prediction Challenge, this approach yields positive returns by taking advantage of established market odds.
What this means for our picks: The Elo-based approach described in this paper underpins the rating component of our own methodology. We combine Elo ratings with goal differential metrics and lineup data to generate our banker and upset-watch selections — scaled to 13 games for the Midweek slip.
📄 Detecting anomalous in-play betting for match-fixing
Winkelmann, D., Vienken, M., Deutscher, C., & Langrock, R. (2026). "Integrity at Stake: Statistical Detection of Anomalous In-Play Betting in Football." arXiv:2605.30209v2 [econ.GN].
This study uses high-frequency in-play betting data from Italian Serie B to develop a state-space modelling framework for detecting unusual betting behaviour. The authors note that football accounts for the largest share of global betting turnover and that integrity reports continue to flag suspicious matches.
What this means for our analysis: This research highlights why single-pick predictions on volatile matches (our "upset-watch" games) carry elevated risk. When betting markets show anomalous volume or odds movement, it can signal information asymmetry — one reason we use double-chance cover on those fixtures rather than straight singles.
Midweek Lines & Cost Calculator
Plan your Midweek slip before you pay. Tap 1 / X / 2 per match to see your lines and total cost.
Midweek Lines & Cost Calculator
Tap 1, X or 2 for each of the 13 matches. Pick two for a double, all three for a triple. See how many lines you're playing and what it costs.
0Singles
0Doubles
0Triples
0Total lines
KES 0Total cost
-Chance of 13/13*
*Assumes every outcome is equally likely (a pure guess). Real odds depend on the teams. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only.
How the calculator works: permutation formula
Every double chance pick doubles your total lines. Every triple pick triples them. The formula is:
Total Cost = Base Stake (KES 99) × (2D) × (3T)
D = number of double chances selected · T = number of triples selected
For example, with 5 double chances and 0 triples: 25 = 32 lines × KES 99 = KES 3,168.
Static cost lookup — double chances only
| Double chances | Lines | Total cost (KES 99/line) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 198 |
| 2 | 4 | 396 |
| 3 | 8 | 792 |
| 4 | 16 | 1,584 |
| 5 | 32 | 3,168 |
Slip Checker
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FAQ
What happened to SportPesa in 2019?
SportPesa ceased operations in Kenya after the government revoked its licence amid a tax dispute. A key issue was a 20% excise tax on betting stakes. SportPesa resumed operations years later. Both the Mega and Midweek jackpots returned with it.
Who regulates gambling in Kenya now?
The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Kenya (GRA) regulates and controls gambling activities under the Gambling Control Act. It replaces the former Betting Control and Licensing Board (BCLB).
What research supports football match forecasting?
A 2025 paper in arXiv (2501.05873) by Mendes-Neves et al. integrates Elo ratings with machine learning to forecast soccer match outcomes.
How much does the full slip cost?
KES 99 per slip, paid via M-Pesa. The slip is sent by SMS, usually within about 5 seconds.
How many games are in the Midweek Jackpot?
The SportPesa Midweek Jackpot has 13 games. You need all of them correct to win the full jackpot.
What are the bonus tiers?
Midweek Jackpot: bonuses are paid from 10 correct up to 12 correct. All 13 correct wins the full jackpot.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. Predictions are opinions, not guarantees. Never stake money you can't afford to lose.
Is this site affiliated with SportPesa?
No. This is an independent analysis service, not affiliated with SportPesa or Safaricom M-Pesa.